Incorporating gas pipeline leakage failure modes in risk evaluation of electricity-gas integrated energy systems

In order to incorporate the gas leakage failure in EGIES risk evaluation, a multi-state Markov state transition model considering pipeline is creatively developed, and analytical formulas calculate involved rate parameters this are derived. The concept of virtual load presented reflect impacts on operation natural network, then network analysis nodes presented. A bi-level sampling method based mixed sequential non-sequential Monte Carlo simulation proposed simulate chronological non-chronological aspects simultaneously. curtailment indices, including also designed. An with modified RBTS 7-node system used demonstrate application method. results indicate that failures have significant reliability EGIES. Ignoring evaluation will result an overly underestimation risk.